To: Interested Parties
From: Maya Rupert, Chief Strategist
Date: December 29, 2025
Re: Charles Booker and the real chance to pick up a Democratic Senate seat in Kentucky
In special elections and off-cycle races this year, something important is happening. Across the country, Democrats who ran smart, positive, disciplined and authentic campaigns that focus on affordability and real-world solutions outperformed expectations in deep red districts and statewide races.
As we head into 2026 with growing popularity for economic-focused campaigns that center working people, and opposition to Republicans’ agenda of chaos and high costs, Kentucky is poised to be the next battleground for this kind of race, and Charles Booker is the only candidate positioned to make it happen.
This is a lightning-in-a-bottle moment in Kentucky: an open U.S. Senate seat, a popular and energetic candidate with a deeply resonant message, a weak Republican field, an energized electorate, and a national political environment increasingly hostile to extremism and hollow culture-war politics. Our polling confirms it: with Charles as the nominee, he is running within single digits of the Republican frontrunner —vastly outperforming the generic Democratic ballot. With the right early investment, Charles Booker can win in Kentucky and deliver for the Commonwealth.
In this Moment, Voters are Choosing Authentic Candidates Focused on Working People
Voters have been clear about what they want in this moment: fighters who are values-driven and authentic—not poll-tested platitudes or ideological cosplay. Candidates are succeeding when they unify and energize working-class voters around what is possible: an affordable life, work with dignity, and the ability to raise safe and healthy families.
This is the exact message that catapulted Charles Booker to national attention in 2020 and reshaped Democratic politics in Kentucky, resulting in the ecosystem that gave us a Democratic governor and situated us for the moment we are in right now.
That race unfolded under very different conditions. Charles was up against an entrenched Democratic establishment that coalesced early around a handpicked nominee, Amy McGrath, and flooded the race with outside money. Despite being massively outspent, Charles nearly secured the nomination—coming within two points of McGrath. McGrath would go on to amass nearly $100 million dollars and lose handily to Mitch McConnell.
This time, Kentucky voters have a genuine opportunity to choose a nominee in a primary driven by people across the Commonwealth—not corporate donors or Washington insiders. The movement Charles has built is organic and people-powered, which is precisely why it has endured. He is the only candidate from either party running an economic campaign centered around working people – focusing on affordability, workers’ rights, and unrigging a system that benefits the wealthy at the expense of everyone else.
This Race Is Winnable
Mitch McConnell’s decision to retire has a number of benefits, including that for the first time in 15 years, Kentucky has an open U.S. Senate seat. That alone makes this race a real opportunity for the right candidate. The Republican field taking shape is weak, fragmented, and increasingly consumed by a messy primary that will pull its eventual nominee far from where Kentucky voters actually are.
Charles was leading in Democratic primary polls before joining the race – and our polling shows he is the only candidate who can offer a real alternative to the failed Republican leadership that is leaving Kentuckians behind.
Against Republican frontrunner former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron—who currently leads his primary by 17 points—Charles trails by only seven points.
Against Congressman Andy Barr, he trails by only 11 points. Against entrepreneur Nate Morris, the race is effectively tied.
Those numbers tell us that Republicans who have been running longer and raising significantly more money are failing to break through, while Charles continues to overperform expectations. That is a reflection of the weakness of their field and the strength of what Charles is building. With the right early investment, we can turn this momentum into a winning coalition.
In 2022, Charles won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, becoming the first Black person to secure a major party nomination in Kentucky history. Despite Rand Paul’s commanding financial advantage, Charles’ vote share was almost identical to McGrath’s in 2020, where she spent nearly $100 million dollars. With a fully resourced operation built to compete and win from the outset, this race will be an entirely different story — one where Charles’s proven ability to expand the Democratic baseline in Kentucky becomes decisive.
This is not a “vote blue no matter who” race. Kentucky voters have rejected that approach before—and for good reason. Charles Booker is uniquely positioned to drive turnout, generate real enthusiasm, and bring along the persuadable voters necessary to win statewide.
Kentucky does not need a pro-Trump Democrat. We have tried that, and it does not work. Kentucky needs a pro-Kentucky Democrat.
Charles Booker sees Kentucky for who it is—from the Hood to the Holler. He understands how people are struggling and offers clear, practical solutions to make life easier. He will take on poverty, transform our healthcare system, and relentlessly focus on improving the lives of working families.
Kentucky is often labeled a red state, but the facts tell a different story. Democratic Governor Andy Beshear has been elected twice and remains broadly popular. In our polling, Governor Beshear’s approval ratings are higher than President Trump’s. Kentucky voters will elect a Democrat—but only the right Democrat.
That candidate is Charles Booker.
With you on our team, we’re going to build a strong movement across the Commonwealth — uniting Kentuckians across race, religion, and class — to win.
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